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Old 08-17-2008, 06:00 PM
Tim C Tim C is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Cutler Bay, So. Florida
Posts: 293
Default Re: Fay may come to visit.

Hurricane Update,

This is from the NHC, the storm is still expected to turn to the north tonight.

If it doesn't, then the panhandle will be at a greater risk for a hit.

The front to the north is expected to impact the storm at some point, that will turn it hard right and to the east.

If it does turn during the night, the west coast should start putting up shutters right away.

This storm is expected to come ashore at a Cat 2 if it doesn't lag too much over the western side of Cuba.

It is already almost a Cat 1 but the mountains on the west side of Cuba are breaking it up.

The newest estimate for landfall is now TAMPA AND NORTH, but it still could skirt the coast and hit Naples too.

Remember that the east side of the storm has the worse winds and rain, passing just off the coast could be as bad as a direct hit.

If you can do it, button everything up tomorrow morning if this turns.

In these warm waters and with a front to impact the storm, remember that Andrew was 200 miles off the east coast and still a TS.

A front came down the state and turned it left. As the storm slid along the front in the warm water, it went up to a Cat 5 in 200 miles.

Now that doesn't mean that this storm will do this, but to think that it will just stay a Cat 1 or even a Cat 2 is a dangerous gamble.

Take whatever precaution that you can do and then stay safe, if it stays a TS or Cat 1, you have only spent a few hours to put up some shutters.

Remember there are often tornadoes too.

I don't want to scare anyone, just inform them, I still have a direct connection to the NHC and get info that may be helpful.

The Blackhawk came about 3:00pm, the kids in the neighborhood were going nuts, the crew was doing a training mission as they came to get the plans and my part of this. So they were in full gear.

I had 2 very young Privates, come running up to my front door with their M 16's.

My 2 soldiers thought I was coming with them, I told them no but they are soldiers, and they only follow orders.

I almost had to go with them, at least to the Airbase where everything was being put on an Air force jet to Tallahassee.

Thankfully I was able to reach the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) in Tallahassee and get someone to confirm that I wasn't going with them this time.

They know that they can reach me if they need to.

It is too long of a story to tell here, but it was something that I will not forget.

Anyway everyone stay safe,
Pictures of the Blackhawk are coming when they are developed and scanned into a digital photo.

Tim C
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